Flying in the face of common sense and criticism, Les Binet of DDB Matrix has made a declaration, "The future for television advertising looks bright." While I don't really know anything about Les, I assume he's a pretty smart guy, but hopefully his opinion is backed up by more than he put in this slide show.
While the numbers can be questioned based on what study you're looking at, surely we can agree that there are still a shit load of people watching tv. So is it dead? Not so much. Agreed? Good. Les is disputing something that's not really being said (with the exception of few hyperbolic statements here and there). So we can get into what other studies say the decline is, how DVR changed the game, how the xbox and similar trojan horses are affecting viewing habits, how multimedia consumption affects attention, etc., but the bottom line is he missed the point. The argument seems to be that the future looks bright because things aren't changing enough to make up for a declining CPM, which I find questionable at best.
You won't find me advocating for the total removal of television from the marketing mix, but at the same time, now's not the time for us to feel comfortable sitting back on our laurels.
Check out the conversation over at Scamp's place...
(Reading back over the post, it does seem a little harsh. I think I'm getting soft in my old age. Sorry, Les. You're probably smarter than me and make more money, so you win.) :)
Soft in your old age, huh? Little blue pills for that...
TV is far from dead, just like magazines and newspapers, but it is still very expensive and until it fully integrates an online life with its original "brick and mortar" presence... it's doomed. Consumers/ Users are increasingly seeking a more interactive experience. Look at the growth in popularity of digital television; people have much more control of their viewing experience and can record shows on their DVR units, skipping the ads, etc. Even that simple level of interaction registers in a very positive way.
It's a changing landscape... and the quick will survive.
Seriously, you can get a prescription for that little problem of yours.
Posted by: Tim Jackson | February 15, 2008 at 11:06 PM
Paul,
Good stuff. I think for the Fortune 1000, and for cable advertisers such as discounters, TV remains a good buy. Both can afford to pour money into the buy to earn ROI. For the rest of us, there are better marketing tools.
Posted by: Lewis Green | February 18, 2008 at 12:10 PM
I didn't realize youngsters preferred the radio over the web.
You kinda feel bad for all those entrepreneurs and VC's messing around with the "Internets", when their focus should be on radio. Fools.
Posted by: Jon Chamberlin | February 20, 2008 at 01:22 PM